I’ve been bullish since the October 7 massacre on the end of Benjamin Netanyahu’s prime ministership. The man who for decades insisted that he was Mr. Security — the only person who could keep Israel safe in a dangerous neighborhood — instead presided over the single worst attack in the Jewish State’s history. As the man at the top, he is the most accountable for the political, military, and intelligence failures that culminated in Hamas’ surprise invasion. Previous Israeli prime ministers have gone down for far less. Deeply unpopular and widely loathed, Netanyahu is just about the only senior Israeli official to refuse to take responsibility for what happened, in a country that takes pride in accountability, especially from its security authorities. It’s hard to fathom how he could stay on much longer as prime minister.
Yet my expectations are tempered by reality. War, coalition politics, and the simple calendar of democratic elections all suggest that, barring a major upheaval, Netanyahu is likely to remain in Balfour House (the Prime Minister’s official residence in Jerusalem) for some time yet, perhaps even years.
In other words, I spoke too soon.
At first blush, things seem ripe for a major change at the top. In a poll taken at the end of 2023, when asked who they would like to see as prime minister after the war, only 15% of Israelis named Netanyahu. Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist National Unity party who has long opposed Bibi and sits in the war cabinet with Netanyahu and three other officials, came in with 23%, the highest share of the vote. Even within Netanyahu’s Likud Party, where the Prime Minister garners a third of their vote, Gantz comes in second place, with 15%. The polls back up the general sense of disgust towards the Prime Minister, whose arrogance, political machinations, and cynical embrace of the extremist right have long grated on a plurality of Israeli voters; and who now see that his approach to dealing with Israel’s enemies was a catastrophic failure.
Nor do Israelis trust Netanyahu to ably prosecute this war. The five-person war cabinet — weighted with three opponents of the Prime Minister — was established to ensure that Netanyahu doesn’t make war decisions based on his personal political calculations. Having long conflated his political survival with the needs of the State of Israel, Israelis don’t want him making life and death decisions based on whether those decisions help him remain in power.
Reservists have been coming home from the Gaza front, heroes in the eyes of millions of Israelis. Thousands of them are agitating against Netanyahu, his coalition, and his Likud Party. As in previous moments in Israeli history, this “revolt of the reservists” makes a harrowing opponent for any prime minister.
Nearly every senior Israeli security official has accepted responsibility for their role in the October 7 failure. But Netanyahu has refused, insisting that, unlike other top officials, he will not resign after the war. Instead, he claims to have made Israel “stronger.”
All of this would seem to mitigate in favor of a “throw the bums out” purge that will see Netanyahu shuffled out of the Prime Minister’s seat as soon as the war concludes. But there are three reasons to doubt this will happen any time soon. Those reasons are:
The election calendar. The next elections aren’t due until October, 2026 — meaning that Netanyahu and his coalition government are entitled to almost three more years on their term. Israel is a democracy, after all! The voters don’t really have a mechanism to suddenly toss out the government. Only Netanyahu’s coalition partners can do that.
Coalition politics. Netanyahu is at the mercy of the far-right coalition partners he elevated into government, like National Security Advisor Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. They pledged to support Netanyahu as long as he delivers on their agenda. In theory this gives them considerable leverage, because if they and their respective parties leave the coalition, Netanyahu will no longer have a sufficient majority in the Knesset to stay in power. The Knesset could vote to hold new elections, giving voters the opportunity to throw Netanyahu out. And, indeed, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and their fellow extremists do frequently threaten to leave. But there’s a catch: Netanyahu is the only one who is willing to include them in government. If he falls out of power, so will they.
The war. As much as Israelis loath Netanyahu and his leadership, barring a major military setback, they are unlikely to shake up the government while the fighting is fierce. And it’s not just Gaza: Israel is also threatened by Hezbollah along the northern border, Hamas in the West Bank, and outside forces like the Houthis in Yemen and, ultimately, Iran. Until there is clarity on the direction of the war — that is, whether or not it will suddenly escalate — most Israelis are probably too wary to force a drastic change, certainly knowing that Netanyahu will drive a scorched-earth campaign to remain in power at all costs.
Add all this up and it suggests that, instead of his imminent political demise, Netanyahu could stay in place for years to come. Yet he is a diminished figure. Physically weakened by heart troubles, his political legacy is in tatters. Had he quietly left the arena a few years ago, he would have gone down as one of Israel’s most effective prime ministers. Now, Israel’s longest-serving premier will be remembered for the failures that led to the worst attack on the Jewish People since the Holocaust.
On the other hand, things can change quickly! I might be proven wrong even sooner than I think. We’ll see.
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Picture of the Day
The Western Wall in the Old City, Jerusalem, holiest site in Judaism. Built by King Herod as part of the Second Temple complex beginning in the latter half of the 1st century, BCE.
The stones tell a visual story of the long continuity of this place. The large stones towards the bottom are Herodian (i.e. dating to King Herod’s time and distinct style). As you travel up, the smaller ones date to various repairs over the centuries. The solid white line of smallest stones at the very top are from the early 20th century.
Photo: Jason Harris
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