Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Gaza, and Israel -- it's a busy couple of days
My head is spinning. If you feel like you can’t keep up with everything happening in the Middle East, you’re in good company! Everything is happening everywhere all at once — and very quickly. So here is a quick run-down of what’s happening and why, with the caveat that by the time you read this events may have changed considerably.
To sum up, what we’re seeing is a tremendous effort by Israel to restore its deterrence. This is Israel letting the bad guys know that continuing to attack Israel invites severe consequences, up to and including their own ruination.
Lebanon
Hezbollah, Iran’s biggest, most heavily-armed, and most powerful proxy army in the Middle East, launched a war against Israel on October 8, and has been engaged in unrelenting attacks since then. Israel is now pushing back — hard. A few days ago Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime head of Hezbollah. This was the culmination of an intensive, and ongoing, effort the last couple months to eliminate Hezbollah’s leadership.
At the same time, Israel is targeting Hezbollah’s ability to attack by striking the group’s massive rocket and missile arsenal. The IDF estimates it has destroyed around 50% of that arsenal, which still leaves some 60,000 aerial weapons of various kinds, power, precision, and range. This presents Hezbollah (and Iran) will a classic “use it or lose it” dilemma. Hezbollah is crippled, its leadership in crisis, its ability to communicate comprised, and Israel is also targeting its weapons supply routes that run from Iran through Syria (this is why you’re seeing headlines that Israel is also bombing sites in Syria).
Hezbollah remains, though, a very dangerous enemy, which is why Israel is now engaged in a third effort: invasion. These limited (so far) ground incursions are designed to push Hezbollah off the border. As long as the terrorists sit on the border, tens of thousands of Israel’s displaced northern residents cannot safely return home. Israel considers it essential to push Hezbollah away from the border while also degrading its ability to continue attacking Israel. After nearly a full year of absorbing Hezbollah’s attacks, Israel has finally had enough.
What’s next? We’re unlikely to see Israel heed the demand for a cease-fire or deescalation. The international community never made such demands when Hezbollah was doing the attacking, so they don’t have a lot of credibility. But more importantly, Israel now has the upper hand. Unlike Gaza, Israel has been planning for this war for a long time, which is why we’re seeing such targeted, precise attacks in such short order. Israel has decided that it will no longer tolerate tens of thousands of displaced citizens, the intentional targeting of civilians, the destruction of Israel’s border communities, and the constant threat of an October 7-style attack from Lebanon (the IDF revealed that 3,000 Hezbollah fighters were poised to invade northern Israel after October 7, which Israel held through a series of covert raids).
Israel sees that it has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to thoroughly wreck Hezbollah (though not destroy it completely), and wants to take advantage of this moment. Most Lebanese, Syrians, Iranians, Sunni Muslims, Americans, and everyone else victimized by these mass-murdering thugs are, and will be, very happy to see Hezbollah dismantled and humiliated.
But there is great danger here. Israel has been bogged down in Lebanon before, with deadly consequences (Israel has twice invaded Lebanon, in 1982 and 2006). Thanks in part to Hezbollah’s efforts over the last forty years, Lebanon is a failing state. A prolonged and bloody war will only make things worse for the country.
Iran
All this poses a huge dilemma for Iran, which has invested decades and billions of dollars into its terrorist army, only to now watch it dismantled in a matter of days. Does Iran cut its losses and back off? Or double-down and risk open war with Israel?
Today Iran launched 181 ballistic missiles at Israel, only the second time Iran has ever directly attacked Israel. Many were intercepted by the Iron Dome, some hit. Reports are that a Palestinian civilian was killed by shrapnel falling in the West Bank, and two Israelis were lightly injured in Tel Aviv.
Will that be the only volley? Will Iran limit itself to this single reprisal, or is more coming? Will Iran respond to Nasrallah’s assassination by targeting Israeli officials around the world? Iran likes its proxy armies doing the fighting; it doesn’t like to face direct consequences. Israel could target its nuclear facilities, its oil facilities (from which it derives much of its money), and its senior leadership. The Mossad has demonstrated that it can hit anybody anywhere, and knows where everyone sleeps. That has to have rattled Iran’s regime.
But can Israel fight Iran by itself? Can it conduct a sustained campaign so far from home and for an indefinite length of time? Would the United States jump into a war with Iran? The answer is “unclear.” So Israel has its own careful calculations to make, too.
Iran would probably like to strike back in such a way that it doesn’t provoke Israel’s full wrath. But as we’re seeing in Lebanon, Israel’s patience has run out, and Netanyahu is playing a game of “you have no idea what I’ll do next” in order to deter Israel’s enemies. Nasrallah didn’t think that Israel had the guts to actually take him out. Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is surely wondering about his fate.
Yemen
Another Iranian army, the Houthis in Yemen, have continued to fire missiles into Israel. Two days ago they fired at Ben Gurion International Airport just as Netanyahu was landing. Israel responded with its second attack on Yemen, 1,100 miles from Israel and at the same time they were hitting Lebanon. Massive air strikes obliterated Houthi-controlled power plants and the seaport at Hodeidah, from which the Houthis import oil and weapons from Iran.
The Houthis continue to attack cargo ships in the Red Sea, disrupting global shipping.
Gaza
After nearly a year, Gaza is unresolved. 101 hostages remain, some dead, some alive but likely in very bad shape. Fighting continues, but not nearly at the intensity of several months ago. Hamas has been severely degraded and probably could not carry out another October 7. But it remains a deadly guerilla force, able to inflict damage on Israeli forces inside Gaza. And menace its own people. The other day gunmen murdered a Palestinian humanitarian aid worker for a US-based charity working in Gaza (since Israel didn’t do it, it didn’t much make the news). Hamas claims it was an accident, but her fellow activists say it was because she refused to turn over her charity’s funds.
Not much can be said for Gaza’s future prospects, either. Cease-fire talks appear to have stalled out and there does not seem to be an effective strategy for removing Hamas from power in Gaza. Netanyahu continues to oppose any role for the Palestinian Authority in governing Gaza once Hamas is gone, leaving that whole question in limbo.
A popular argument is that a cease-fire in Gaza will get Hezbollah to cease-fire, since it removes their justification for attacking Israel in support of Hamas. I don’t put much stock in this thesis. Hezbollah attacked Israel plenty often before October 7, even when there was a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas; this time around was just a convenient excuse for them launching their own war against Israel on October 8. Now that there is a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, a cease-fire with Hamas isn’t going to change that dynamic. And a cease-fire with Hezbollah doesn’t solve the fundamental problem of them on the border, which Israel is no longer willing to tolerate.
The long-term story here is that Gaza is a struggle because Israel never planned for war there like they did with Hezbollah. Compared to Lebanon, Israel had weaker intelligence, devoted much less effort to military pre-planning, had no on-the-books program for a systematic invasion of Gaza, and no pre-determined strategy. In short, Israel expected war with Hezbollah and planned accordingly; they didn’t expect war with Hamas so never really planned.
Israel
Two terrorists murdered six people in Jaffa last night, shooting and stabbing them to death. It was one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in Israel in recent years. The gunmen were killed by return fire from a security officer and armed civilians.
The two terrorists were from the West Bank, which is also experiencing heavy and deadly fighting between Israel forces and terrorist enclaves concentrated in a few neighborhoods in a few cities. Israel is desperate to keep a lid on the potential of the West Bank to erupt as yet another front in this war.
Finally, Netanyahu shored up his hold on power, proving once again that he is the undisputed master of Israeli politics. In a deal with Gideon Sa’ar, a onetime-friend-turned-opponent who heads the New Hope political party, Netanyahu appointed Sa’ar Minister Without Portfolio and agreed to him joining the War Cabinet. That brings Netanyahu’s coalition from a shaky 64 seats (you need a 61-seat majority to govern) to a solid 68. Which means that it is very unlikely Netanyahu can be ousted anytime soon. The next elections are two years from now.
Netanyahu might be using Sa’ar to push out Yoav Gallant, current Minister of Defense, bitter opponent of Netanyahu (even though they are both of the Likud Party), and one of the most popular politicians in Israel. Last time Netanyahu tried to sack Gallant, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to demand his reinstatement, which worked. Netanyahu would love to cast him aside.
There could also be a silver lining, in that Netanyahu is now less beholden to the right-wing extremists Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. They’ve managed to capture Netanyahu by threatening to leave the coalition if they don’t get their way. They command seven seats, which means that even if they bolted, Netanyahu would still be able to hang on to his majority by one vote. So their threats, while not hollow, just got a lot less potent, giving Netanyahu some political space (if he wants it).
So here’s three takeaways:
What Israel is doing is restoring its deterrence. On October 7, Israel looked weak and vulnerable, and its enemies took advantage of that to launch a 7-front war. Israel is now sending the message that continued attacks will have severe consequences.
The war against Hezbollah in Lebanon is about trying to reduce the threat against Israel’s north, so that tens of thousands of evacuees can return home. That means degrading Hezbollah’s ability to attack, and pushing them several miles off the border so they can’t stage an October 7-style attack.
The United States can’t effect a cease-fire now. Biden is on his way out, the American election is a toss-up, and Israel now has the upper hand against Iran, which is the snake’s head. This war is far from over.
This Week’s Episode: War With Hezbollah
Hezbollah attacked Israel on October 8 last year, laying siege to the north of the country that has killed civilians, burned entire towns to the ground, and driven tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. Israel is now fighting back in an effort to push Hezbollah off the border and stop the attacks. Let’s look at what’s happening and why now.
Find the podcast episode here, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Getting to a Palestinian state
Back in March I released a three-episode series on what Israel, the Palestinians, and the world need to do to get to a Palestinian state. It’s worth continuing to keep these points in mind as this war continues.
Episode 177, Part I, What Israel Needs to Change
Episode 178, Part II, What the Palestinians Need to Change
Episode 179, Part III, What the World Needs to Change
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Picture of the Day
Prayer at the Western Wall. Photo: Jason Harris
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