Just as I finished recording yesterday’s episode about Netanyahu’s speech to Congress, ready to rest on my laurels, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s #2 terrorist, Fuad Shukr, in downtown Beirut. Eight hours later, Hamas’ #1, Ismail Haniyeh, was at long last assassinated in one of the most highly protected compounds in Iran (Israel hasn’t admitted to that one). Such is the Sisyphean task of trying to keep up with Israeli current events!
Who were these guys? Is a massive regional war now about to break out? Or are Israel’s enemies learning their lesson?
Over the last several weeks Israel has struck back hard against the Big Three jihadist armies serving as proxies for Iran’s war against Israel: Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The point isn’t just retaliation but a strategic effort to reassert Israel’s deterrence by making its enemies pay a huge price for doing so. The hope is that the terrorists will think twice; or, if not, suffer consequences aimed at degrading their military capabilities and taking out their senior leaders. All these air strikes and assassinations carry the same message: we know where you are, and we can kill you anytime and anywhere we want. Above all, this deterrence is aimed at Iran: restrain your armies.
So who did Israel just assassinate?
Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s #2
Fuad Shukr had a $5 million bounty on his head — not from Israel, but from the United States. Shukr was a central planner of the October 23, 1983 bombing of the Marine Corps barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, that killed 241 American and 51 French soldiers. It was a massive event that drove the United States and its allies out of Lebanon, where they had been attempting a peacekeeping mission. He’s been a wanted man for a long time.
Shukr was part of the founding generation of Hezbollah and, as of yesterday, was essentially Hezbollah’s top military commander. He was the right-hand man to Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader. In addition to planning and executing decades of attacks against Israel, Shukr was the terror group’s bag man for its most advanced weapons, procuring its precision-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, drones, and the like.
Israel held Shukr responsible for the Hezbollah strike on the Golan Heights on July 27, in which a rocket killed 12 children playing soccer in the Druze village of Madjal Shams. The world wanted to know how Israel was going to respond to that attack. Well here you go: the Israeli Air Force reached into the heart of a Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut to take him out.
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ #1
Killing Haniyeh is like killing Osama bin Laden. It’s huge. He was the top leader of Hamas. The press loves to refer to him as a “moderate” because he was the leader of Hamas’ “political wing,” which is ostensibly different from its “military wing.” The latter is run by Yahiya Sinwar, who is Hamas’ leader in Gaza and the mastermind of October 7. But the media needs a reality check: Haniyeh is the leader of a genocidal terrorist organization committed to the elimination of Israel and the murder of Jews everywhere. He’s not a moderate. He’s a war criminal.
Haniyeh was not in Gaza. He was living in luxury in Qatar for years, having stolen millions of dollars from the Palestinian people and international humanitarian aid to fund his lavish lifestyle, extensive travel, and multiple property investments. He bounces around between Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and other places as the international face of Hamas, making common cause with the dictators, theocrats, mass murderers, and radical Islamists who are all committed to destroying the West and Israel. A recent photograph of four Israeli female hostages shows them cowering in a room graced with his portrait.
Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president. An hour before the strike he met with Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. He was staying in a heavily-guarded house under the protection of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian leadership’s ruthless terrorist army. It’s still unclear exactly how Israel got him, but reports suggest they hid a bomb inside the house months ago, waiting for the right moment to set it off. Alternatively there may have been a missile fired from outside Iran, or a drone strike launched from within.
Iran is extremely embarrassed. It’s not just that Haniyeh was killed on their soil in one of the most protected zones of the country during the presidential inauguration. It’s that their military looks impotent compared to the IDF. Several months ago Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, achieving nothing except killing a seven year-old girl, and here Israel took out Israel’s most-wanted enemy right under Iran’s noses with a single shot.
Iran has to be asking itself what kind of damage it can really hope to do against Israel. And if Israel can take out Haniyeh inside one of Iran’s most protected enclaves…well, they can hit anyone else under Iranian protection too. Or even an Iranian leader next time.
Now what?
It’s hard to say. Leaders are replaceable, and Hamas doesn’t need Haniyeh to carry out attacks against Israel. Haniyeh hasn’t done much for Hamas since October 7, and there’s bad blood between him and Sinwar — both men wanting to be in control of things, and Sinwar is generally winning out (now permanently until Israel gets him, too).
Haniyeh was involved in the cease-fire-for-hostages negotiations, so those might get more complicated — but he also wasn’t delivering anything, so perhaps not. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran have vowed to strike back against Israel, but we don’t know what that will look like. Iran and its proxy armies are no doubt deep in conversation, calculating how to hit back and what that might cost them. Iran has promised a “direct strike” against Israel. Hezbollah can hit Tel Aviv with a massive attack. But here is where deterrence comes into play: will they want the consequences that come with that? The Houthis bombed downtown Tel Aviv with a single explosive drone, killing one person, and Israel responded by obliterating one of their key ports in Yemen. The assassination of Haniyeh demonstrates that Israel has the capability to bring the fight directly to Iranian soil if they choose.
We know that “something” will happen next, but we don’t know what. But here are a couple of scenarios to consider:
Positive outcome
Taking out Haniyeh, Shukr, the Houthi port, and now probably also having assassinated Mohammed Deif, one of Hamas’ top military leaders in Gaza, a few weeks ago, has demonstrated Israel’s deterrent capability. This all might be enough to give Iran and its armies pause. Iran is always cautious about accepting consequences for itself, which is why it uses proxy armies. They might not want to escalate things to where Israel starts conducting direct strikes on precious Iranian targets, like its nuclear facilities or key regime people. And Hezbollah knows that outright war with Israel will devastate Lebanon, which the terror organization needs as a parasitic host. One of the reasons Israel has hit Gaza so hard is to send a message about what will happen to Hezbollah.
On the Israeli side, these assassinations could give Netanyahu the political cover to finally seal a hostage deal in exchange for a cease-fire. Killing Deif and Haniyeh, along with the IDF’s other gains in Gaza, allows the prime minister to claim a lot of victory in defeating Hamas; at the very least degrading its ability to carry out another October 7, one of Israel’s key metrics. So now could be an excellent time to strike that deal and extricate the IDF from Gaza so it can focus on Hezbollah. It’s unclear what would happen with Gaza — Hamas would still be in charge, and would remain a deadly guerilla force.
Really bad outcome
Iran and its proxies might be so humiliated, enraged, and cornered that they go all-in now. If Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are able to coordinate a massive joint attack — on Tel Aviv, say, or against a sensitive military base, or even Ben Gurion International Airport — it could escalate into a massive regional war that would quickly get out of control. That could happen even if they don’t fully intend a full war. But if they strike back hard enough, Israel will feel it has no choice but to respond in kind. No one would be able to keep the lid on the violence. Lebanon would be totally crushed, probably tipping it into “failed state” category. The United States is distracted by its election and Biden is on his way out, so there’s no telling to what extent the US would intervene here. The terrorist groups might calculate that the US will likely stay out of things as much as possible. Expect massive civilian deaths on all sides and an indefinite war.
Hamas is the weakest of Iran’s proxies and look at how much damage they’ve been able to do to Israel. Hezbollah is an order of magnitude more deadly, with precision-guided missiles capable of hitting everywhere in Israel and causing huge devastation. Unless Israel can push Hezbollah off the border, northern Israel will remain a permanent ghost town. Israel will have effectively ceded territory to a terrorist army. And while the Israeli Air Force can reach Yemen, the IDF can’t invade it to hold territory like in Gaza or Lebanon.
Iran has thus far acted with impunity, content to let its proxies — and Palestinian and Lebanese civilians — bear the consequences of Iran’s war against Israel. Haniyeh’s killing shows that Israel can bring the fight to Iranian soil. But Iran has no incentive to stop unless it suffers real consequences for its war.
Remember, this isn’t a cold war. This isn’t a “cycle of violence” between Israelis and Palestinians. This is a hot war of Islamic jihadism against the West. Iran and its armies are playing the long game, content to keep the conflict going as long as it takes to eliminate Israel and then the West. We’ve been in one stage of that war since October 7. The question is whether we’re now moving into another, far more deadly, phase.
We’ll see what happens
This Week’s Episode: Netanyahu’s Speech to Congress
Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the United States Congress for the fourth time — a record for a foreign leader. His speech came amidst the political tumult of the US election: Trump’s assassination attempt, Biden’s abdication, Kamala Harris ascension (or coronation?). What did his speech reveal? Does it change anything?
Find the podcast episode here, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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Picture of the Day
The evening Tel Aviv skyline seen from Jaffa, the ancient seaport next door. Photo: Jason Harris