Why is Israel taking land in Syria?
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Why is Israel taking land in Syria?
Israel’s activities in Syria have been flying under the radar the past six months. But it’s an important story. Depending on how you look at it, Israel is either expanding some defensive positions along the Syrian border, or aggressively seizing Syrian land for itself. The question is why?
The concise answer is because Turkey might be the next Iran.
If that’s throwing you a curveball, welcome to the changed (and still changing) Middle East! Israel’s post-October 7 seven-front war, the collapse of Iran, the overthrow of Syria, Trump’s foreign policy, and, well, everything else, mean that new winners and losers are emerging in this part of the world. Israel wants to make sure it’s on the winning side.
Iran remains the major threat, thanks to its nuclear program. But its power is waning under American sanctions, Israeli airstrikes, and a disgruntled populace. Turkey seems to be emerging as the new Islamist authoritarian power. It sees the chaos in Syria as an opportunity to turn that country into a puppet state. Israel sees a potential threat in which Turkey puts jihadists, backed by Turkey’s sophisticated military, right on Israel’s northern border.
The brief history you should know
The Golan Heights is a mountainous region in between the Sea of Galilee (Israel) and Damascus (Syria’s capital) that was part of Syria from 1948-1967. It’s vital strategic territory: only fifteen miles wide and with direct views into Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. Syria used it as a vast military base to attack Israel. But Israel took the Golan in the 1967 Six Day War, and it’s been in Israeli hands ever since. Following the 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and Syria, the United Nations created a narrow buffer zone along the border, with a formal Disengagement Agreement that prohibited various military and construction activities in the area.
Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981. The United States is the only country that recognizes Israel’s claim (and didn’t until 2019). Israel considers the Golan essential for its national security. Around 50,000 people live there, roughly split between Israeli Jews and Druze, an Arab religious sect.
Israel and Syria never signed a peace agreement, so the border remains a hostile one. But there was an understanding during the Syrian civil war that began in 2011: Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad would keep the border quiet, and Israel would not interfere on the side of the rebels trying to topple Assad. Israel did strike Iranian and Hezbollah targets within Syria, but not those of the Syrian regime itself.
Assad was finally overthrown in December, 2024, leaving this arrangement uncertain. The new self-appointed president is Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was the head of the rebel group that sacked Damascus and pushed Assad out. A former jihadist, he appears to be making an effort at reform, but he doesn’t have complete control over the country yet. By his own admission, he has much bigger fish to fry than Israel (he has said he supports continuing the Disengagement Agreement).
Israel pushes into Syria
Israel had two military responses to Assad’s fall. The IDF conducted strikes across Syria to eliminate major weapons that Israel worried would fall into the hands of Hezbollah and other jihadist groups, including chemical weapons, long-range missiles, and anti-aircraft missiles. At the same time, the IDF pushed into the UN buffer zone, taking most of it.
Prime Minister Netanyahu initially said the move was “temporary.” It has since been described as “indefinite,” and there is little sign that Israel will pull back anytime soon. Israel is not encountering much armed resistance, and the situation seems mostly static at the moment.
How much land has Israel taken? It’s hard to find a precise figure. Somewhere between 100-200 square miles is probably in the ballpark (roughly the size of Denver) — again, this is mostly the UN buffer zone along the border, though Israel can now project military power deeper into Syria without directly controlling territory.
The question is whether Israel really needs to do this.
Reasons for and against
Netanyahu argued that Assad’s fall — during which the Syrian military abandoned its positions along the border — rendered the Israel-Syria understanding moot. And in the chaos of post-Assad Syria, Israel worried that various rebel and terrorist groups might fill in the vacuum. The prudent move, therefore, was for Israel to expand its defensive positions until a new agreement can be reached with the new Syrian government. There are reports of secret talks over the past few days on just this topic.
Still, the danger seems very low. The new Syrian government has no interest in stirring up trouble with Israel. al-Sharaa’s rebel group has never threatened or attacked Israel before. Nor have other rebel groups shown much interest in attacking Israel, whether because they are busy with Syria’s internal challenges or because they saw what Israel did to Hezbollah — or both. In fact, with Hezbollah decimated, Iran’s influence in Syria basically nil, and the border region populated mostly by Druze who aren’t hostile to Israel, there doesn’t seem to be much of a threat.
Still, the IDF remains traumatized by their failures around October 7, so its appetite for risk is very low. The government doesn’t want to take even the slightest chance of getting caught off guard. Pushing out their defensive lines buys more breathing room.
And there’s politics. Netanyahu needs Israel on a war-footing to keep his hardline right-wing happy and to distract from his own personal and political troubles. So he has every reason to maximize threats wherever he can find them.
There is also a long-term reason for Israel’s moves in Syria: Turkey.
Eyes on Turkey
For all the complaining about Israel’s incursion into 100-200 square miles of Syrian territory, there is little outcry over Turkey’s seizure of around 1,500 square miles. Ongoing military operations since at least 2016 have seen huge swathes of Syria come under either direct Turkish control, or the control of rebel groups funded, supported, and allied with Turkey.
What’s going on? Turkey wants to replace Iran as the Middle East’s major regional power. Its authoritarian leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has ambitions of grandeur as a modern-day Ottoman sultan, ruling over the Middle East through a fusion of intense Turkish nationalism and political Islam. Erdogan sees stirring up conflict with the West as an opportunity to boost his popularity and increase Turkey’s influence.
Part of that is a concentrated antipathy to Israel. Turkey has long hosted Hamas’ leaders and serves as a base of operations for the terrorists' financial dealings. It has sent rocket-making supplies to Hamas and supported other Palestinian terrorist efforts. Erdogan frequently expresses his desire to see Israel destroyed, and has on more than one occasion suggested that Turkey could invade Israel to protect the Palestinians. Maybe that’s just hyperbolic rhetoric to stir up his base. But Turkey has a huge, well-funded, and sophisticated military (it’s a member of NATO) to be ignored at one’s peril.
Just as Iran controlled Syria through Hezbollah and other jihadist groups, now Turkey wants to use the same playbook. The rebels that sacked Assad were supported, funded, and armed by Turkey, which is thus now in a strong position to influence Syria’s future. This is what worries Israel: a hostile, advanced military aligned with Hamas-style jihadist groups right up on the northern border.
For its part, Turkey worries that Israel will support Syria’s Kurdish separatists, with whom Turkey continues to wage a decades-long, bloody conflict. The Kurds have long agitated for independence, which could see a new state carved out of Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, a potentially destabilizing force in the region (Kurds control most of Syria’s and Iraq’s oil).
Both Israel and Turkey worry that the other is taking advantage of Syria’s chaos to stake out positions that could be interpreted as threatening the other. Both also see an advantage to keeping Syria weak and divided, and supporting the area’s various minorities and sub-groups as counterweights to each other. Like boxers warily circling the arena to get a sense of each other’s strengths and weaknesses, both sides are not necessarily looking to go in for a hard jab just yet…but it’s not hard to see things escalate in that direction eventually.
In trying to make Turkey the next dominant Islamic empire, Erdogan is pursuing the same old strategy of anti-Zionism, demonization, and increasingly-bellicose rhetoric. In short, Turkey may be the next big threat facing Israel.
Jew Oughta Know event: “Where is Noah’s Ark?” at the East Bay JCC on Sunday, June 1, at 3:00pm PST
Come see me in-person at the 37th Annual East Bay Tikkun — A Day of Learning in Honor of Shavuot. Shavuot is a spring festival marking the moment when the Israelites received the Jewish law at Mt. Sinai. It is often celebrated by devoting the entire day to learning.
JCC East Bay, 1414 Walnut Street, Berkeley, CA
Sunday, June 1, 2–8pm (my session will run 3:00-3:50pm)
My talk: Where is Noah’s Ark? Every few years we see headlines that a “boat-like” structure has been found on Mt. Ararat, where the Book of Genesis says Noah’s Ark came to rest at the end of the Flood. We’ll dive into these claims in a fun and fascinating adventure that will reveal the complexities of the Flood story and how it still relates to our world today.
Jew Oughta Know in The Economist
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