Why Netanyahu is going back to war
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A majority of Israelis want two things: a deal with Hamas to get the remaining hostages home, and an official commission of inquiry to pass judgement on the government’s failures around October 7. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is giving them neither one. Instead, he is taking Israel back to war in Gaza to delay both, save his political skin, and continue the effort to defeat Hamas.
Israel and Hamas completed Phase One of the three-phase deal a few weeks ago: the return of 38 hostages (33 Israelis and 5 foreigners) in exchange for about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, an increase in humanitarian aid, and an IDF withdrawal from most of Gaza. Phase 2 was supposed to happen next: the return of 24 living hostages (another 35 dead hostages also remain) in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and the complete evacuation of the IDF from Gaza, which would essentially end the war. Those negotiations never began. Instead, Israel, with the support of the Trump Administration, pushed to extend Phase 1 — the return of living hostages for continuing the cease-fire. Hamas refused, arguing that Israel is obligated to move towards Phase 2 as originally agreed.
The situation has since been a stalemate, with Hamas the main beneficiary. They got the continuation of the cease-fire without having to return any hostages. But two days ago, Israel launched air strikes on Gaza — the beginning of what Israel says will be an escalating campaign against Hamas’ fighters and government officials.
Israel gave two reasons for the air strikes. The IDF says the attack was preemptive to prevent active preparations to carry out terrorist attacks. Hamas has repeatedly violated the cease-fire with attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers (including several failed bus bombings). The second reason is Hamas’ rejection of two hostages-for-ceasefire proposals from Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy. At a “dead end”, Israel judged that the cease-fire deal had effectively run its course, and renewed the fighting in order to put pressure on Hamas. Israel is telling Hamas that the terrorists will enjoy no more reprieves if the hostages aren’t released, and that Israel will not tolerate Hamas ruling Gaza.
But politics is also playing a notable role in this. There are four main reasons why this is happening now. They all add up to the fact that Netanyahu is in trouble and wants to keep his job.
Reason #1: Hamas’ intransigence
Will Hamas actually free the twenty-four living hostages? The hostages are Hamas’ only leverage. As long as they remain in Gaza, Hamas can threaten their safety. Once back in Israel, the IDF will have no further reason for restraint. Israel is counting on this, and Hamas knows it.
Israel’s goal has always been to both defeat Hamas and get all the hostages home. Most Israelis think that is unlikely to happen simultaneously. Seventy-three percent want Netanyahu to cut a deal now to end the war in exchange for all the hostages. That does not, however, prevent Israel from later going back to war once the hostages are home. This is also the assessment of Israel’s military and security authorities, who generally support a deal.
As soon as the war ends Hamas will use that time to rebuild its military capabilities in order to carry out another October 7. But they are probably years away from being able to pull that off, so time is on Israel’s side. Israel can get the hostages back now, rest and plan (for six months, a year), and then strike back against Hamas at a time of its own choosing. In other words, we can make an argument that Israel can both defeat Hamas and get the hostages back, as long as one comes before the other.
But Hamas understands this, which raises the question (that no one can answer) of why they would ever agree to return all of the hostages. If you look at the situation through this lens, then negotiations aren’t productive, but instead a way for Hamas to buy itself time while keeping Israel distracted and divided. So if releasing the hostages isn’t an option, then going back to war is really the only (still very bad) path Israel can take to put pressure on Hamas.
Of course, you don’t know if you don’t try, and Netanyahu’s opponents argue that he’s not even trying. That’s because…
Reason #2: A hostage deal could bring down Netanyahu’s coalition
A hostage deal that ends the war, even temporarily, poses a significant political threat to Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s coalition, especially the hard-right nationalist parties, don’t want a hostage deal. They argue that Israel’s security needs must take priority over getting back the hostages, since Hamas poses a threat to all Israelis, not just those held hostage. They insist that Israel must first defeat Hamas (and permanently occupy Gaza).
It’s possible, then, that if Netanyahu makes a deal that gives Hamas a reprieve, enough ministers could leave his coalition to force new elections, which he could lose.
So Netanyahu dodges and ducks to defer ever having to make a definitive decision. Netanyahu wants suspended animation, in which he can float exactly in the middle of either agreeing to a deal or taking it off the table. His safest political move is to keep the war going. Crucially, while those 73% of Israelis want a deal now, a plurality of Netanyahu’s own voters want to continue the war (however, for the first time since the war began, a majority on the right want the deal). Netanyahu is betting that he won’t pay much of a political price for not striking a deal, since many of his own base are with him. Very shrewd. Very cynical. Those hostages are at 530 days and counting. And recently freed hostages, who know all too well what hell they are enduring, are demanding an immediate deal.
But that also reveals a similar political risk…
Reason #3: Trump talking directly with Hamas
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal friend and envoy, whom Israelis credit with helping securing the Phase 1 hostage releases, is speaking directly with Hamas in the hopes of figuring out a deal.
For Netanyahu, direct talks between the U.S. and Hamas pose a risk because, again, that might force him to make a deal that his coalition partners oppose. That last thing Netanyahu wants is to get stuck between the demands of his coalition and Trump. He might then find himself facing either a reckoning in his own government, or a Zelensky-style dressing down in the Oval Office. Either would be very bad for keeping his job. So, again, he’s aiming for suspended animation by resuming the war. This has the approval of the Trump Administration, which is now fighting the Houthis in Yemen to protect the Red Sea shipping lanes. It’s all part of the same broader fight against Iran.
This does not, however, have the approval of the majority of Israelis, who are clamoring to finally hold him accountable for October 7…
Reason #4: Netanyahu wants to avoid a Commission of Inquiry
Israel has a long history of official commissions of inquiry after major military disasters. The two most famous are the Agranat Commission after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and the 1983 Kahan Commission following a horrific massacre of Palestinians by Lebanese Christian forces during Israel’s war in Lebanon. The Agranat Commission led to the resignation of Prime Minister Golda Meir, who was held responsible for the surprise Arab attack that started the war. The Kahan Commission held Defense Minister Ariel Sharon indirectly but personally responsible for ignoring the conditions that led to the massacre. He was forced to relinquish his cherished defense role and never regained it (though he later served as Prime Minister).
Israelis are agitating for a commission to investigate the government’s failures around the October 7 attack. Seventy-two percent want Netanyahu to accept responsibility and resign either now or after the war. Official inquiries by the IDF and other security forces found significant faults within their own arenas. Senior officials accepted responsibility for their actions (or lack thereof). IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, the military’s highest ranking officer, stepped down a couple weeks ago.
Netanyahu knows that an official inquiry will find him ultimately responsible for the country’s top-level failures around October 7. He continues to insist that it was entirely the fault of the military and security officials and that he bears no significant responsibility. But he has been Prime Minister since 2009 (with the exception of a year and half as leader of the opposition). The buck stops with him. He knows it, and all Israelis know it, too.
Bonus Reasons #5, 6, 7 . . . :
There are other issues in play. Israel has to vote on a budget at the end of this month, which is a big deal that could break apart the coalition if the various parties don’t get what they want. And the Knesset is still considering drastic changes to Israel’s judiciary, an effort to alter the nation’s democratic character that nearly tore the country apart before October 7.
Netanyahu is trying to fire Ronen Bar, the head of Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, akin to the FBI), claiming that he is part of a “deep state” conspiracy with “the media” to bring Netanyahu down. Again, trying to push responsibility for October 7 onto the security authorities and get rid of senior officials who don’t agree with him.
Netanyahu also wants to get rid of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. She’s trying to force the government to comply with a Supreme Court ruling to draft ultra-Orthodox youth into the army — yet another risk to Netanyahu’s coalition, since the ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to leave if the draft is carried out. The Attorney General is also investigating several of Netanyahu’s aides for suspicion of having accepted money from the Qatari government. And Netanyahu himself is back in court to testify in his own, very long-running, trial for corruption.
So the Prime Minster is facing huge political risks from multiple directions, any of which could on their own, or in combination, bring down his government and end his reign. Restarting the war in Gaza fulfills certain military and strategic goals — and Netanyahu’s political aims.
The big picture
Make no mistake: this is Hamas’ war, and they could have ended it at any moment by releasing the hostages. Leaving Hamas in power in Gaza guarantees perpetual suffering for Palestinians and Israelis. Nothing will get rebuilt, all resources will continue to be diverted for terrorism, children will be radicalized for martyrdom, and male teens will be conscripted to die for the cause of destroying Israel. There is simply no way around getting Hamas permanently out of Gaza. The resumption of war is Israel’s message to Hamas that Israel is prepared to keep fighting as long as it takes.
This is all happening within a much bigger geopolitical picture that is realigning the Middle East, with Israel and Saudi Arabia on top (aligned with the United States), and Iran and its terrorist armies on the bottom (aligned, hopefully, with no one).
Nearly all Israelis were behind what they see as a just war of self-defense. But now there is a split. A majority want to end the war if it means getting back the hostages, while a strong minority wants to keep fighting. It was always wrong for Israel’s critics to insist that the past year and a half was “Netanyahu’s war”. But now? It might very well be his.
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